Trends in climate change and their manifestations in the watershed of the Assa-Talas river basin

Abstract

To predict current climate changes and their manifestations in the watershed of the Assa-Talas river basin, a research base has been created based on many years of information and analytical materials from RSE “Kazhydromet” and “Kyrgyzhydromet”, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the reference and information portal “Weather and Climate”, allowing to study trends on a spatio-temporal scale. Based on the created research base for the meteorological stations Susamyr, Talas, Kyzyl-Adyr, Nurlykent, Taraz, Saudakent and Oyik, located in the watershed areas of the Assa-Talas river basin, graphs of the time series of average annual air temperatures and annual precipitation were plotted using Microsoft Excel and the equations of their linear trend were obtained, which made it possible to develop a mathematical model for the growth rate of climatic and hydrological indicators that have a sufficiently high physical and mathematical meaning, based on the law of nature. An analysis of the growth rate of climatic indicators in the catchment area of the Assa-Talas River basin shows that their quantitative values for all meteorological stations do not coincide, that is, in modern conditions, the growth rate of average annual air temperatures in comparison with the growth rate of annual precipitation is twice as high, which contributes to increasing the shortage of water consumption of natural and cultivated agricultural and up to 25 % and reducing the surface hydrological run off up to 15 % in comparison with the middle of the twentieth century, ensuring the water security of the region.