Ecologic-statistical forecasting of the water quality of the Yesil river in the North Kazakhstan region

Abstract

In the article various approaches for assessing the quality of water resources of the Yesil River in the North Kazakhstan region using the results of environmental monitoring were presented. A brief description of the river, which is a trans-boundary artery for the region, was given. The dynamics of the complex index of water pollution (CIWP) for the considered period was shown. A comparative analysis of the CIWP values was carried out, showing its decrease over the period 2014–2018. The water quality of the Yesil River was characterized as a moderate level of pollution. The main provisions of the new regulatory document “Unified System for Classifying the Water Quality in Water Bodies” were presented by the authors, which has been in force in Kazakhstan since 2019, and provides an assessment of the quality of the researched object in compliance with its requirements. Using the existing ecological and statistical modeling methods, a forecast of the development of the Yesil river CIWP values in the North Kazakhstan region in the medium term was performed. The forecast was based on the building a trend of a linear function. The adequacy of using such calculations for building a graphical image was confirmed by determining the coefficients, which optimally assess the forecasting model. The obtained results do not show an increase in the parameters of the CIWP in the short term, since a feedback was revealed between the dependent and independent components of the linear function, which characterizes the decrease of the endogenous parameter over time. The results of modeling ecosystem objects are necessary for analyzing and forecasting the development of situations that make it possible to prevent deterioration of the environment’s quality. The presented methodology can be used under development of sustainable development programs of the region.